Home News Coronavirus horror: Scientists warn of ‘inevitable’ deadly second wave across UK

Coronavirus horror: Scientists warn of ‘inevitable’ deadly second wave across UK

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The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have suggested that easing lockdown restrictions could trigger a second surge of Covid-19 cases. Documents published on Friday, which detail a Sage meeting held on 5 May, warn that the phase four plan is “highly likely” to push the R rate above 1 which would mean an increase of infections.

The group propose that phase 4, which would begin around 15 August, would include all children going back to school in September, most people being back at work and most leisure facilities reopening.

The document read: “As things currently stand, Phase 4 of the modelled options is highly likely to push R above 1.

“This phase of the option involves more extensive relaxing of measures across a range of areas.”

On Thursday, the Chief Scientific Adviser and member of Sage, Sir Patrick Vallance stated at the daily press briefing that the R rate is currently somewhere between 0.7 and 0.9.

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A second peak of coronavirus infections is “inevitable” according to Sage documents (Image: getty)

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Sage has suggested that easing lockdown restrictions could trigger a second surge of Covid-19 cases (Image: getty)

The R value is a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread.

If this number becomes higher than one, then the amount of cases will increase exponentially.

However, if the number is lower, the number of people infected will shrink and the virus will eventually peter out.

On Monday, the UK will enter phase 2 according to the government’s plans based on the Sage modelling.

READ MORE: Coronavirus map LIVE: UK hospital death toll jumps 177 

    

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Boris Johnson said people will be able to see friends and family outside while social distancing (Image: getty)

Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that people will be able to see friends and family outside while maintaining social distancing.

The documents from the Sage meeting reveal that for any further easing of lockdown restrictions to take place safety “very effective contact tracing is essential” for example with pubs and restaurants.

But the group warned that reopening businesses including hairdressers, nail bars and other “personal care services” could create infection hot spots like those seen in care homes.

The document sated: “People working in businesses involving close, sustained contact with many people, however, could have levels of infection as high as those seen in social care, as well as increasing transmission in the community.”

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