DONALD Trump is set to win the 2020 US Election because of the economic boom under his presidency, experts claim.
Three prediction models by leading economists point to Trump successfully retaining his place in the White House next Autumn, it was reported this week.
President Trump with Melania in Japan. The president will win the 2020 election because of the good economy and the fact he is incumbent, experts predict[/caption]
The Dow Jones stock index reached record highs during the Trump administration[/caption]
Steve Rattner, a former Treasury adviser under President Obama, wrote in a New York Times opinion column on Monday about the Republican’s chances.
He said President Trump is odds-on to succeed because three reports on models from accredited economists all found that he would win.
The same models also predicted Barack Obama’s 2008 victory, his re-election in 2012 and President Trump’s shock win four years later.
Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s and Trump critic, analysed 12 prediction models for the 202 election that look at economic trends and also factor in political considerations like approval ratings.
If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily
Mr Zandi revealed that President Trump won in all 12 of the prediction models as the US economic boom offsets his low approval rating.
President Trump’s approval rating sits at just 41 per cent, according to poll tracking site FiveThirtyEight.com.
But the Dow Jones stock index peaked at an all-time record high of 26,616 points last summer under Trump’s watch.
Mr Zandi told Politico in March: “If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily.
“In three or four of them it would be pretty close.
“He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back.
“The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot.
“If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.”
RIDING ECONOMIC BOOM
Donald Luskin, of Trend Macrolytics, came to the same conclusion after examining possible Electoral College outcomes for 2020.
And Yale economics professor Ray Fair’s prediction model found Trump’s 2020 vote share could reach as high as 56.1 per cent.
But he noted that this forecast is “before factoring in his personality”.
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President Trump has the good economy and his incumbency working in his favour in the lead up to the 2020 vote.
Of the 20 incumbent US presidents before Trump who were up for re-election, only five have lost.
Mr Rattner wrote: “The question for 2020 may well be whether Mr. Trump can overcome the majority of voters’ poor perception of him and use a good economy and incumbency to win re-election.”
Donald Trump with Melania. The president is set to sweep to victory in 2020, prediction models claim[/caption]
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