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World War 3: China will keep US 'at arm's length' as all-out conflict looms


As the US election date closes in, many anticipate a potential turn of events with China. China and the US have long since been at loggerheads with each other. Current US President Donald Trump launched a trade war against Xi Jinping’s country in 2018.

It has raged ever since.

Negotiations briefly reopened in early August after being suspended in January.

They came with a backdrop of bad blood over TikTok and its China-based owner, Bytedance.

Many now fear that the rising tensions over digital and e-commerce may bubble into physical conflict, especially in already contentious regions such as the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.

Yet, several war simulators and strategic advisors have warned that the US, in the event of war, may not stand up to the task.

This is something that Dr Malcolm Davis, an analyst at the Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), warned the New Zealand Herald that is increasingly worrying for outside observers.

He explained that “the 2020s will see greater risk as China begins to get the capability to challenge the US at sea and in the air (also in space and in cyberspace)”.

He continued: “That could tempt it to make moves in the South China Sea and against Taiwan.

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Dr Davis said technology like this, added to its weaponry, gives China the power to keep US military forces at “arm’s length”.

He said: “The main challenge the US faces is sustaining the ability to project military force deep inside China’s anti-access and area denial (A2AD) perimeter – which is expanding as the PLA introduces new long-range strike capability.

“Carrier-based airpower, in particular, is being challenged.”

Many war simulators have already predicted that China would beat the US in war.

Earlier this year the Pentagon carried out a series of “war games” with China.

Every conclusion saw US forces overwhelmed in a sea war with China, and found the country would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan.

American defence forces told The Times that simulated conflicts conducted by the US concluded that their forces would be pushed beyond their limits.

One war game focused on the year 2030, by which time the Chinese navy would operate new attack submarines, aircraft carriers and destroyers.

Added to this was the discovery, through analysis, that Beijing has already made every US base and any American carrier battle group operating in the Indo-Pacific Command region vulnerable to overwhelming strikes from its medium-range ballistic missiles.

When talking about China’s long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles, one US defence source admitted to the publication that US carrier groups could not oppose their Chinese counterparts “without suffering capital losses”.

Described as “eye-opening”, the analysis throws into question Washington’s capability of being the defender of the free world.


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